All fast facts for Jobs & Economy are from the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). They do not represent all of their reports on this subject. Some simply provide historical perspective. Occasionally minor word adjustments may have been made for clarity or to reflect the updated nature of the statement. As always, verify and view statements in their full context as often as possible.
|There is no inherent contradiction between using fiscal policy to support the economy today, while unemployment is high and many factories and offices are underused, and imposing fiscal restraint some years from now, when output and employment will probably be close to their potential. Click here to verify at Page 17-18|
|if people believed that policy changes that increased near-term deficits presaged larger deficits in the future and thus that the federal budget outlook had become bleaker, the economy would be hurt in the near term by a faltering of business and consumer confidence and an increase in interest rates. Click here to verify at Page 18|
|Employers’ decisions to hire workers will also be affected in some cases by the health care legislation…Employer penalties, whose amounts are based on the number of full-time workers in the firm, will, over time, generally be passed on to workers through reductions in wages or other forms of compensation. However, firms generally can not reduce workers’ wages below the minimum wage, which will probably cause some employers to respond by hiring fewer low-wage workers. Alternatively, because firms are penalized only if their full-time employees receive subsidies from exchanges, some firms may instead hire more part-time or seasonal employees. Click here to verify at Page 32|
|The deficit under the President’s proposals would fall to 4.1 percent of GDP by 2015 but would generally rise thereafter. Over the 2012-2021 period, deficits under the President’s budget would total $9.5 trillion, compared with $6.7 trillion under those baseline projections. Under the President’s budget, debt held by the public would grow from $10.4 trillion at the end of 2011 to $20.8 trillion at the end of 2021, about $2.8 trillion more than under CBO’s baseline projections. Outlays for net interest would nearly quadruple between 2012 and 2021 in nominal dollars (without an adjustment for inflation). Total outlays (spending) under the President’s budget would equal 23.6 percent of GDP in 2012, decline slightly as a of share of GDP over the following two years, and then rise for the rest of the 10-year projection period. They would equal 24.2 percent of GDP in 2021 – about 0.3 percentage points above CBO’s baseline projection for that year and well above the 40-year average for total outlays, 20.8 percent.
Click here to verify at Summary and Page 2
|As the economy expands in the next several years and as statutory caps constrain discretionary appropriations (January, 2012 report), federal spending in CBO’s baseline projections declines modestly relative to GDP before turning up again because of increasing expenses generated by the aging of the population and rising costs for health care. Projected spending averages 21.9 percent of GDP over the 2013-2022 period, a percentage that is less than the 23.2 percent CBO estimates for 2012 but that is still elevated by historical standards.
Click here to verify at Summary